As Mexico embarks on a new chapter with the election of Claudia Sheinbaum as its first female president, the implications for U.S.-Mexico relations are profound. With nearly 60 million Mexicans casting their votes, Sheinbaum’s victory ensures a continued Morena party dominance—a situation that bears significant consequences for the security and economic landscape shared by our two nations.
Under the previous leadership of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Mexico’s internal security deteriorated, and the repercussions have not been confined within its borders. The U.S. has faced an unrelenting flow of fentanyl, synthesized by Mexican cartels, which has claimed the lives of over 200,000 Americans. Additionally, the surging number of illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border presents a monumental challenge that has only grown under policies that fail to sufficiently deter unlawful entry.
The specter of a Morena-controlled Congress in Mexico looms large. If Sheinbaum’s government utilizes this majority to effect unilateral constitutional changes, the nation’s democratic institutions could be at risk, exacerbating the existing strains between the U.S. and Mexico. The last six years have already seen a deterioration in this critical bilateral relationship, and the cooperation needed to address shared challenges seems elusive still.
Sheinbaum’s predecessor presided over an era where the Mexican government waged an ambiguous battle against the cartels, simultaneously pursuing policies that hindered economic openness and targeted U.S. investments adversely. The perpetuation of these policies under Sheinbaum would likely continue to strain an already tense relationship. It is imperative for the next U.S. administration—whether under Biden or Trump—to prioritize clear and firm policies that address these issues head-on, including leveraging the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to hold Mexico accountable.
Trade between the U.S. and Mexico, which surpassed $2 billion daily last year, underscores the critical economic interdependence. However, this economic exchange is strained by security concerns and the logistical upheavals caused by nearshoring efforts redirecting supply chains from China to Mexico. The situation necessitates a coordinated and robust approach from the U.S. that balances economic interests with security priorities.
President Joe Biden’s approach has seen limited success in areas vital to U.S. interests. Despite high-level engagement and diplomatic overtures, concrete progress remains scant. Quintessential issues such as border security, fentanyl trafficking, and trade imbalances remain unresolved. The Biden administration’s failure to secure the border has manifested in nearly 10 million illegal crossings since taking office, a stark reminder of the inadequacies in current policy.
Heading into the 2024 elections, the border crisis continues to dominate voter concerns, paralleling economic and inflation issues. For the U.S., addressing these concerns requires fortifying border security and devising strategies that curtail illegal immigration—efforts that must be supported by cooperation from Sheinbaum’s administration.
Sheinbaum’s rhetoric of maintaining a relationship of “friendship, mutual respect, and equality” with the U.S. faces significant challenges. A genuine partnership hinges on tangible actions to stem cartel violence, curb illegal immigration, and enforce mutually beneficial trade practices. Her campaign promises, particularly in areas of policing and security, will be under scrutiny to see whether they will translate into effective governance compared to her predecessor’s tenure.
The impending review of the USMCA in 2026 places additional pressure on this relationship. Addressing trade disputes and ensuring Mexico’s compliance will be critical in promoting investments and securing economic stability. The encroachment of China in Mexico’s economic affairs further complicates the calculus, necessitating a strategic U.S. policy that safeguards American interests while countering foreign influence.
As political developments unfold, the U.S. faces a pivotal moment in shaping its approach to Mexico. The path chosen will determine whether the benefits of a secure and prosperous bilateral relationship can be realized. With high stakes in economic and homeland security, the onus is on the next U.S. administration to adopt a more stringent and results-driven stance. A fortified Mexico can become a key ally in the broader geopolitical contest, but failure to stem the current trajectory will only deepen the crisis, with repercussions felt keenly on both sides of the border.
