By B. James Johncox, Professional Sniper/Military Historian/Amateur Author
On July 13, 2024, at a support rally near Butler, Pennsylvania, Thomas Matthew Crooks, a young man of only 20 years old, tried to assassinate the 45th President of the United States of America, Donald J. Trump. President Trump, at that time, was also the presumptive presidential nominee for the Republican Party in the upcoming 2024 election. President Trump survived the attempt, sustaining only a minor injury to his right ear. Unfortunately, three other standers by were hit by the assassin’s gunfire, tragically killing one, former Fire Chief Corey Comperatore, and critically wounding two others, David Dutch and James Copenhaver.
It has been two months since the attempt was made to take the President’s life. Indeed, it seems like “old news,” so to speak. However, articles are still being churned out addressing every facet of the details of that day. Inevitably, blame finds a landing zone and this time, the blame landed on the United States Secret Service. Perhaps, justifiably. Nevertheless, speculation and conspiracy manifest in the ether as well. Theories abound about the number of shooters involved and who coordinated the attack. Was it the “Royal They?” meaning the entrenched government in D.C. Was there a second shooter? Was he a member of some secret cabal? Was he an asset of Russia? Was this a false flag operation on the part of the conservative movement in order to drum up support? Did Lee Harvey Oswald really take three shots from the Texas Book Depository that November day in 1963? On and on it goes and it will not stop any time soon. At any rate, here is a perspective from a former sniper. You may choose to accept the answer or not, but I have witnessed too much in one lifetime to believe anything other than the philosophy of Occam’s Razor should be a law as readily accepted as that of gravity.
To begin, a distinction must be made. Many, to include President Trump himself, have referenced the would-be assassin by the title of “sniper.” Crooks was not a sniper. He was a mook with a rifle. Having earned that particular title, I take exception to those who would bestow it upon someone who did not earn it and whom I consider to be particularly despicable. That is not to say there are not trained snipers who, as a result of becoming a sociopath, snap and become homicidal, but Crooks was not one. Although he was twenty years old and referred to as a “man” in the English vernacular, in reality he was an ideological kid caught up in the tribalism of present-day politics. In any event, the only thing he did succeed in was ensuring that his name will live on in the history books. Notwithstanding, the honorable title of “Sniper,” (capital S) should not be used as fast and loose as it is now. He was a gunman… just a gunman. Otherwise, there would be an entirely different conversation taking place and Donald J. Trump would be spoken of in the past-tense.
A sniper would not have missed that shot. In fact, a sniper, could have shot the President in the ear intentionally at that range. Hear me out and try to digest the reality of the circumstances… Crooks was approximately 147 yards away, give or take a few inches. Snipers, Soldiers, Marines, hunters… anyone who regularly utilizes rifles… normally “zeroes” the rifle for 100 yards. There are those who zero at two or three hundred because their granddaddy told them to, but for all intents and purposes, maximum point-blank impact range is best achieved with a 100 yard zero. An entire article could be written about MPBI range, and there are ballistic nerds who will argue that some arbitrary number, like 74 yards, is the best for zeroing… but this is designed to be digested by most people, not the exception. Simply stated, it means they adjust the rifle’s sights to produce a point of impact that matches the point of aim at exactly 100 yards. In order to test this “zero,” a grouping of a few rounds will be fired to confirm that the rifle’s sights are set at 100 yards… a decent shooter can place three rounds inside the circumference of one inch… a mediocre shooter can usually get three or so rounds to impact inside of a three-inch circle. Given that we know the shooter was utilizing an AR-15 (Armalite Rifle – Model 15) firing a .223 caliber projectile that was travelling in excess of 3,000 feet per second at the muzzle, and depending on the brand of ammunition being utilized, the rate of drop in the space between 100 and 147 yards would have been somewhere around the ¼ – ¾ of an inch mark. For perspective, that is less than the difference between the tip your nose and your upper lip. Suffice it to say, this is not a difficult shot to make. Speaking from experience, a trained sniper can make this shot on his/her worst day, which may or may not have included a tequila bender the night before.
This does not stop the “Royal They” from adding fuel to the conspiracy fire. Sometimes it is easier to “go with the flow…” At any rate, bureaucrats need jobs, and multiple commissions and committees will be formed to dissect this event. Nevertheless, people are going to believe what they want to believe. Although initially designed to disseminate fact, the media is merely going to “pile it on.” They are in the business of making money and the fantastical sells better than the ordinary. If that were not the case, every media outlet would have reported the measured distance as 145 yards, rather than the much further sounding 443 feet. Each outlet is going to find a “scoop” that could potentially draw in a consumer. For example, a July 16, 2024, article in USA Today titled AR Rifle used in Trump Shooting from company with winding history, campaign visit tells of a former Navy SEAL who “speculated that the 5.56 x 45 mm NATO ammunition the shooter used was highly susceptible to variations in wind and humidity.” I am not going to disparage a brother and fellow veteran. The guy found a job that allows him to utilize his expertise in a way that does not involve combat. Also, technically speaking, he is not wrong. The 5.56 x 45 mm (.223 Cal…. Calm down fellow knuckle draggers, I know they are technically different) is highly susceptible to environmental variations… but those variations generated solely by environmental conditions would more than likely need to be measured with a micrometer at that range. Honestly, this article is no different. I began with my own qualifying statement of being a sniper in order to convince my audience that I know what I am talking about. The difference is that I am not trying to sell my audience on some “mumbo-jumbo” idea that the Coriolis effect, or some other chicks-dig-it industry term, had some part to play on why Crooks missed. The most likely answer is that Crooks panic fired. The jig was up and he realized he only had a few moments to accomplish his task. Combine that with the fact that his heart rate was probably higher than a giraffe’s tail pipe and you have the recipe for not one, but several misses of his intended target. This is yet another reason to not refer to him as a sniper. Snipers learn how to utilize combat breathing techniques to lower their heart rate.
Insofar as blame is concerned, there are some who have criticized the Secret Service Counter Sniper team. Hindsight is 20/20 and few have the presence of mind to objectively consider what would have happened had they found themselves in that position. Squeezing the trigger with a human in the crosshairs is a hard thing, but that is most likely not what happened. A highly specialized, highly trained sniper… and make no mistake, one would have to be highly trained to be a sniper on a presidential detail… would not have considered the morality of this shot in the moment. That introspection is reserved for afterwards. No, it is far stickier than that. Adding more parts to an apparatus increases the likelihood that a part can fail. In this case, those parts include the Secret Service and local law enforcement. Broken down further, local law enforcement most likely included the municipal police, county sheriff’s office, and Pennsylvania State Police. Each of which has its own standard operating procedures. To believe that all of the aforementioned entities were familiar with one another, beyond a briefing that took place prior to the event, is a dubious proposition at best. Simply put, they did not know or train with one another. The final piece of this “goat rodeo” was Crooks’ chosen firing position. He could not have chosen better if he had tried. I believe it was accidental. Crooks was not a tactical mastermind. He simply found a rooftop that provided him the necessary line of sight. What he did not know, is that the local law enforcement contingent of the security detail was headquartered in that building. The S.S. counter sniper team did know that. So, what is the simplest answer? Carl Von Clausewitz referred to this concept as fog… i.e. “fog of war.” I imagine the counter sniper team did see Crooks and were in the process of trying to figure out whether a local law enforcement agency put a “plain clothes” officer on the roof. There is no doubt that the C.S. team could have ventilated Crooks prior to him firing a shot, but they had every reason to believe that “there is no way the local cops let a ‘bad guy’ get on the roof of their building.” Mix that thought in with all the others that are swirling around in a sniper’s head et voilà… fog. Honestly, would you have taken that shot if there was a chance that it was a cop?
The rest is now history. We know what happened. What most seem to not fully understand is how remarkably… extremely… out of this world lucky, President Trump is to be standing. I would refer to that particular shot as a “chip shot,” but I do not play golf, and I believe that a chip shot is far more difficult to make than the shot Crooks attempted. Without writing a “blueprint” of how I would have done it, I will quickly try to dispel another conspiracy. That is the “lone” versus “multiple” gunmen theory. At risk of sounding like a sociopath, the victims were all in the same line of sight. Multiple shooters would have set up a “kill box.” Based upon the layout of the rally, a second shooter would have positioned his/herself to bracket the intended target, maximizing their chances of a successful engagement. Snipers refer to this as a “simo-shot” or a simultaneous shot. There is absolutely no evidence to support this scenario. Thus, the simplest answer is that Crooks acted alone. He was not a highly trained operator, much less a sniper. He did not miss because of environmental variations. He missed because he panic fired while trying for a head shot. The head is one of the most frequently mobile parts of the body. A sniper knows this, and while a sniper will take a head shot at 150 yards, they would rather aim center mass unless it is a hostage scenario. In summation, do your part to celebrate those who earn the title “sniper” by not referring to the bag of excrement formerly known as Thomas Matthew Crooks as such. Furthermore, cut the Secret Service counter snipers some slack. The reality is that due to a significant breakdown in communication between agencies (it is likely they did not even share a radio frequency) there is no way the counter sniper team could have known whether Crooks was a “bad guy” or a “plain clothes good guy.” Unfortunately, Crooks’ opportunity was afforded to him by sheer dumb luck.
B. James “Jaycee” Johncox brings an unparalleled perspective to the history of American snipers, drawing from two decades of service as a former sniper and current instructor. His career spans the United States Army and law enforcement, offering him a unique vantage point shaped by real-world experience and a deep commitment to his craft. Driven by a passion for truth, James pursued a degree in Military History while working full-time, where he encountered a pervasive liberal bias even within his field of study. Determined to set the record straight, he authored this book, combining rigorous academic research with firsthand insights to reveal the untold story of American snipers. James’s work is a compelling and unflinching account of the challenges faced by these elite marksmen, both on the battlefield and beyond.