The media has several narratives in play regarding the greatest threat to America’s security. Many new agencies run with the story that it is Putin’s Russia that we should be worried about. If anything, the war in Ukraine has demonstrated that the much vaunted Russian military is less than effective. They are a marginal threat to Europe, let alone to the United States.
Other news organizations highlight China. Indeed, China’s Belt and Road initiative and their threat to Taiwan threatens America’s economic stability. China could represent a military challenge, especially to a US military that has deleted its munitions in Ukraine and allowed China to develop hypersonic missile technology unabated. The only thing keeping China at bay thus far is the damage that a war might cause to their own economy.
So where is the unspoken real threat? Look south. Mexico shares a large border with the US where drugs and people flow freely into our nation. In the last tracked year, the CDC recorded 106,000 drug overdose deaths. That is for one year. The biggest entry point for these drugs, especially fentanyl, is across the southern border. Think of it this way, we went to war for 18 years for the deaths of 2,996 people on 9-11. As a nation we are told to be appalled at a mass shooting event, but that is nothing compared to the deaths from drug overdoses.
Mexico is more of a threat in terms of instability. There are 150 organized drug cartels or gangs that virtually control the country. The Mexican government has lost control of most of the country. Even local officials have had to concede control to the cartels. Witness the mayor of Tijuana fled to a military base for his own protection. The cartels smuggle in their operatives into the US, they are responsible for human trafficking, and countless other crimes. Collectively, they are the only governing bodies in Mexico. All the while, they are shipping illegal drugs that kill tens of thousands of Americans.
The challenge with this threat is that most Americans see the Mexican threat as a problem with drug users. Much like serial killers that target prostitutes, there is little outrage by main street America to the problem. They see it as a problem that affects other people. Combined with the lackluster results of America’s historical war on drugs, there is a sense that we can’t do anything about the problem. Our “solution” to this problem thus far has been to teach high school students how to administer Narcam as opposed to addressing the source of these drugs. Local governments have started to provide needle exchanges or even reduce drug sentences, putting more users on the streets. We are not dealing with the root problem, we are trying to cope with the symptoms. Meanwhile, more Americans die.
The irony of this is that Mexico barely represents a military speed bump in terms of threat. Their air force is a handful antiquated cold war aircraft. The Mexican navy is six ships plus flotillas of patrol craft. The Mexican army numbers 300,000 on paper, but would hardly be an obstacle. Oddly enough, this is a war that the US could win, decisively and quickly, if it had the fortitude to prosecute it.
The US has had mixed results in attempting to wage war in Mexico historically. While triumphant in 1848; the US struggled in tracking down Pancho Villa after his raids of US territory in 1916. In a fortuitous twist of fate, our recent military experience in the Middle East has taught us a great deal about fighting asymmetric warfare and the kind of targeted raids that could cripple the cartels.
Many of the Presidential candidates have talked about securing the southern border, which certainly would be a good start – but history has shown that criminals are creative and determined to find new ways to get their product through. The cartels have built robust networks in the US already. What is needed is a true comprehensive approach to removing the threat of the cartels once and for all and restoring some stability to our southern neighbor. This also requires new and aggressive domestic programs to reverse drug addiction, rather than enable it.
This is a problem that must be addressed. It is something that could be easy to fix, and would have a positive impact almost everywhere. It is paradoxical that our political leaders have not identified it or proposed meaningful approaches to resolving this crisis.
