The assassination of Mexican mayoral candidate Alfredo Cabrera has deeply shocked America, highlighting a broader crisis in Mexico, where a staggering number of political candidates have been murdered in the current election cycle. As voters prepare to head to the polls on Sunday, the nation’s democracy is being strangled by rampant criminality and pervasive corruption, a situation exacerbated in part by America’s voracious illegal drug market which finances and empowers these dangerous cartels.
While the root causes of Mexico’s turmoil are multifaceted, the most significant factor is the ongoing failure of the Mexican government to effectively combat criminal gangs. The prospect for meaningful change appears dim, especially given that Claudia Sheinbaum, the favorite to succeed President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, has pledged to continue his ill-fated “Hugs not Bullets” policy. This strategy, aimed at addressing violent crime through expansive social welfare rather than force, has failed spectacularly, resulting in a surge of violence and more than 30,000 murders in 2023 alone.
The policy’s ineffectiveness is evident in the way it has intensified corruption, as politicians and officials are increasingly compromised by cartel bribes. Obrador has not only turned a blind eye to this corruption but has also actively defended top officials indicted by the United States for drug trafficking, with evidence suggesting his own potential involvement in cartel payoffs. His administration has also been marked by efforts to stifle journalists who expose these corrupt practices, further entrenching the cartel’s power and influence.
In stark contrast, El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele has taken a decidedly different approach, utilizing force against gangs with tangible success. Despite criticisms of his methods being authoritarian, the results are undeniable as the country’s murder rate has plummeted, earning Bukele resounding voter support and a landslide reelection victory. This approach stands in sharp contrast to Mexico’s, where the prospect of Sheinbaum’s continuation of Obrador’s policies offers little hope for improvement.
If Sheinbaum’s Morena party secures a legislative supermajority, there is a genuine threat to Mexico’s democratic institutions. Her proposal to require judges, including those on the Supreme Court, to be elected by popular vote would likely enable cartel influence to penetrate deeper into the judiciary, a dangerous development given the cartels’ vast reach and power. Furthermore, Sheinbaum’s inclination toward strengthening ties with autocratic regimes in Cuba, Venezuela, and China signals a potential shift towards authoritarianism that could further destabilize Mexico.
The implications for Americans are significant, especially given the current administration’s failure to secure the southern border. The continued flow of drugs and migrants into the United States compromises national security and strains resources. The potential election of Sheinbaum portends a continuation of these problems, as her policies are unlikely to stem the tide of illegal activities crossing into American territory.
The situation may, however, change dramatically if former President Donald Trump retakes the White House. Trump has consistently demonstrated a tough stance on border security and is likely to leverage tariffs or other executive measures to compel Mexico’s cooperation. His administration might also take direct action against cartels if they continue to wreak havoc, whether or not they have the support of Mexico’s government.
In the balance hangs the future of both Mexican democracy and American border security. With Sheinbaum poised to maintain the status quo of failure and corruption, the potential return of a more stringent U.S. administration could mark a turning point in this ongoing crisis. For now, Mexico’s desperate plight continues, with little immediate hope for salvation.
